Aspirin.

I have a PhD in engineering, not only as a trader, but also as a data scientist. In this market full of noise and emotion, I only believe in mathematics, logarithmic regression bands, and historical period data. My trading philosophy is simple: survive the long game. Engineering PhD | Data Scientist Trading signals, not emotions. Guided by mathematical modeling, Logarithmic Regression Bands, and historical cycles. Execution: Objective. Rational. Long-cycle focused.

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"Three Signals on the Eve of the FOMC: Average K-Line Noise Reduction, Market Share Truth, and May Fractals" April 28, 2026 Second Quarter Tomorrow is April 29, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Market sentiment is unprecedentedly divided; bulls believe that BTC's rebound of over 13% from the lows means "the worst is over," while bears insist this is merely the last trap before the bear market's resistance zone. Instead of arguing about direction, it is better to use three dimensions of hard data to test the true quality of the current rebound. 1. Average K-Line (Heikin-Ashi): Noise Reduction Judgment at the Monthly Level Ordinary candlesticks are full of deception during bear market rebounds, while average K-lines, through a special algorithm (the closing price takes the average of the current period's high, low, and close, and the opening price takes the average of the previous K-line's open and close), can effectively filter out short-term noise and present the true direction of medium to long-term trends. In the mid-year bear markets of 2018 and 2022, despite experiencing severe rebounds along the way (with a 33% increase in April 2018), the monthly average K-line remained red until several months after the cycle bottom was established before turning green. The color change of the average K-line is a hard threshold for trend reversal, not the magnitude of the increase. BTC's rebound this month is about 13.5%, less than half of the same period in 2018. On the monthly average K-line chart, this increase hasn't even changed the color of the K-line, which remains a red body. The current rise is completely contained within the "noise" range of the macro downtrend. The so-called "most annoying rebound" is merely a routine technical pullback in the face of noise reduction tools. As long as the monthly average K-line has not turned green, any rebound structurally does not constitute a trend reversal signal. 2. BTC's Real Market Share: The 68% Truth Excluding Stablecoins Many people see BTC's market share hovering around 60% and think "altcoins are stabilizing." But this data includes stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which are cash equivalents, and including them in the calculation severely dilutes BTC's true share. Excluding stablecoins, BTC's real market share has surged from 60% last September to 68%, setting a new cycle high. Funds are frantically fleeing altcoins and flowing back into BTC. Over a year, ETH has depreciated 12% against BTC, and SOL has depreciated 22%, with systemic blood loss never stopping. The deep logic lies in macro headwinds: soaring oil prices drive sticky inflation (CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%), locking in the space for interest rate cuts, while altcoins heavily rely on cheap liquidity. The market has basically priced in "no interest rate cuts in 2026," and the liquidity premium of altcoins is being systematically drained. Over the past five years, holding altcoins has underperformed BTC, even lagging behind the S&P 500 and gold. Altcoins are becoming the "penny stocks" of this generation. 3. On the Eve of the FOMC: 3.3% CPI Locks in Dovish Space CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%, substantially reversing the process of cooling inflation. Against the backdrop of high oil prices and geopolitical conflicts, Powell only has two choices tomorrow: "hawkish" and "extremely hawkish." The 2018 fractal provides an accurate time coordinate: there was also a strong rebound before the FOMC meeting at the end of April that year (with a 33% increase), completing a "sweep of highs" on May 5, followed by a unilateral drop throughout May. As 2026 is the same mid-year, the trend remarkably aligns with 2018. The signal of stablecoin market share is also worth noting. The USDT + USDC market share is testing the "bull market support zone," and historically, every time it builds a bottom here, it corresponds to a collapse of cryptocurrency prices. Moreover, new highs in the U.S. stock market do not equate to new highs in crypto. In both 2014 and 2018, the U.S. stock market refreshed historical highs, while BTC was walking its own bear market. Operational Summary BTC: The monthly average K-line remains red; the 13.5% rebound does not constitute a trend reversal. The 200-day moving average (around $82,000) is the ultimate ceiling; any surge is a risk release window rather than a buy signal. Altcoins: The real market share of 68% confirms that funds are continuously flowing out in one direction. Under the chain of "high oil prices → sticky inflation → no hope for interest rate cuts," liquidity exhaustion is structural. Timing Rhythm: The April 29 FOMC is a short-term watershed; the 2018 fractal points to a drop after sweeping highs in early May. The potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in June may trigger the unwinding of yen carry trades, becoming another time bomb for global risk assets. The three signals point to the same conclusion: the current rebound's "noise" attribute far outweighs its "signal" attribute. Before the average K-line turns green, stablecoin market share declines, and the FOMC shoe drops, maintaining vigilance against structural risks is a rational choice. #BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC #FederalReserve #AverageKLine #MarketShare #Altcoins #MacroCycle #RiskManagement

"Review after ten days of silence, precise resistance testing of the 21-week EMA and the dimensionality reduction impact on GOLD" April 23, 2026 It has been nearly ten days since the last tweet. During this time, I have remained silent because the market has reached a critical point that requires "silently observing"—BTC is precisely retesting the 21-week EMA, and GOLD has regained its trend line after a 30% pullback. The Federal Reserve meeting on April 29 is about to trigger a new wave of volatility. In this window of multiple variables converging, silent observation is more valuable than frequent commentary. 1. Two attempts to breach the 21-week EMA—precise resistance testing is underway BTC surged to a high of $78,344 in mid-April, just $71 shy of the 21-week EMA ($78,415), before leaving a long upper shadow and retreating. Just yesterday (April 22), BTC launched another attack, reaching $79,462 intraday, slightly piercing the 21-week EMA—but the trading volume was clearly insufficient, lacking confirmation of a breakout. Two attempts to breach, with the second attempt slightly piercing on low volume, is precisely the most typical behavioral pattern of resistance zones in bear markets: prices repeatedly rub against the moving average for one to two weeks, even slightly piercing to create the illusion of a "breakout," inducing bulls to chase the price before collapsing. In April 2018, BTC completed a very similar "higher high" sweep, only to start a real decline in early May. A low-volume piercing is not a breakout, but the final step of a trap. If BTC can indeed stabilize above the 21-week EMA under increased volume conditions, the next critical point is the 200-day moving average—every "reversal" in the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022 was precisely knocked down by this line. Judgment: The low-volume piercing at $79,462 yesterday is likely part of the "final sweep" before the April 29 Federal Reserve meeting. This is not a return of the bull market, but an upgraded version of the "sweep high point." 2. GOLD: Structural bull market intact, dimensionality reduction risk to assets Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4,700-$4,800, having previously experienced a nearly 30% pullback, briefly falling below the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, but have successfully recovered. This pullback does not signify the end of the bull market—both major bull markets in the 1970s and from 2001 to 2011 were "interrupted" by economic recessions, with gold prices pulling back 20%-30% in the early stages of recession before setting new historical highs. The current trend is remarkably similar to the phase corrections of 1973 and 2008. Cross-asset price ratio data is even more persuasive: since 2022, the S&P 500 has depreciated 44% relative to gold, and BTC has depreciated 60% relative to gold. The BTC to gold exchange rate has continued to decline since peaking in December 2024, and is currently attempting to retest its bear market resistance zone, likely to be knocked down again. The prosperity priced in fiat currency masks the systemic transfer of real purchasing power—throughout the remainder of 2026, gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin and the vast majority of risk assets. The ultimate support zone for gold is between $3,600-$3,700, as long as it maintains its upward trend, there are no worries. With a 3.3% CPI locking in rate cut space and geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, gold may refresh its historical highs again before November. 3. "Not much increase, so it won't drop much"—the most dangerous fallacy Counterexample: In 1974, the U.S. stock market only slightly refreshed previous highs, but the subsequent collapse was even more severe. Increases and decreases are driven by different variables—gains depend on liquidity and narrative, while declines depend on valuation regression and credit contraction. The diminishing returns of the halving cycle (-94% → -87% → -84% → -77% → this round approximately -70%) is a mathematical law, calculated from the high point of $126,000, -70% corresponds to $31,000-$42,000. 4. Three lessons learned from ten days of observation First, the duration of price increases in a bear market is much longer than that of declines. The market usually experiences a slow and tortuous rise for several weeks, followed by a nonlinear drop in a very short time. Understanding this will prevent being trapped by the fear of time, thinking "it has already risen for 16 days." Second, cross-asset price ratios provide more information than absolute prices. BTC's rebound from $70,000 to $79,000 looks like a "strong rebound," but the BTC/gold and BTC/energy stock exchange rates show that this is merely a short squeeze under liquidity exhaustion. Absolute prices can be misleading, but relative prices cannot. Third, maintaining silence before key technical levels is a skill. When prices approach the 21-week EMA, the market is filled with noise in the opposite direction; the most valuable action is to wait for the market to provide its own answers—waiting for closing price confirmation, waiting for volume validation, waiting for macro catalysts to materialize. Operational summary BTC: The precise resistance testing of the 21-week EMA confirms the effectiveness of the bear market resistance zone. If it attacks the 200-day moving average (around $82,000) this week, it is a shorting window rather than a chasing signal. Stop-loss discipline: If BTC stays above the 200-day moving average for three consecutive days without falling below, exit immediately. GOLD: The structural bull market is intact. In the "stagflation + geopolitical risk" defined 2026, pursuing excess returns of gold over risk assets is more rational than betting on a rebound in the crypto space. Timing: The Federal Reserve meeting on April 29 is the most important short-term catalyst, with the 2018 fractal pointing to a decline in early May. Additionally, the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may trigger the unwinding of yen carry trades—this often serves as the first domino in the collapse of global risk assets. Ten days of silence is not hesitation; it is waiting for the market to reach a critical point. Now, it has arrived. #BTC #Bitcoin #GOLD #宏观周期 #风险管理 #21周EMA #美联储

"Realism Perspective (Part 2)" Labor Market Traps, 1999 Fractals, and U.S. Debt - Energy Cards April 14, 2026 The first part discussed the mathematical logic of BTC's "realism" pullback and three untouched cost lines. This part aims to delve deeper into the macro generals' layout and why the U.S. is "igniting" in the Middle East at this moment. If we only look at on-chain indicators without considering the macro cards, we won't understand the true rhythm of this game. 1. Macro General: The Nonlinear Trap of the Labor Market On the surface, the current unemployment rate and layoff data in the U.S. seem stable. However, underlying data shows that hiring numbers and job openings are plummeting. What does this divergence of "stable layoffs + falling hiring" mean? It indicates that the labor market is in an extremely fragile balance: companies on the layoff side are still observing, but companies on the hiring side have hit the pause button. Once a sustained decline in U.S. stocks or crypto assets triggers companies to enter layoff mode, the loss of hiring momentum means that the unemployed will not be reabsorbed—unemployment rates will not rise linearly but will spike explosively. This is the "general" situation at the macro level: the Federal Reserve cannot significantly cut interest rates under sticky inflation, nor can it sit idly by when unemployment rates explode, leaving policy space tightly constrained. This aligns perfectly with the analysis in the April 6 blog post regarding how oil prices drive inflation and lock down the space for rate cuts. 2. The Shadow of the 1999 Fractal: September Sweep, October Crash Now, let's look at the real doomsday scenario (not the baseline scenario, but one that must be heeded). The current trend of the S&P 500/M2 money supply ratio astonishingly matches the pre-burst of the .com bubble from 1996-2000. If this fractal continues to hold: September 2026: The market will make one last "sweep high"; October 2026: A severe recession similar to the .com bubble will begin. In this scenario, even if BTC initially bottoms out around $40,000 within the "realism" framework, it will be dragged into a deeper valuation abyss by a systemic crash in the stock market, potentially hitting new lows. This is not my baseline expectation, but whether the business cycle can reset in October is the most important variable to observe in the second half of the year. 3. The Deepest Card: Pressure from U.S. Debt To truly understand this game, we must see why the U.S. is "igniting" in the Middle East at this moment. Key timing lock: The high-interest U.S. debt (interest rate around 5%) that the U.S. will massively borrow in 2024 will mature in concentrated amounts from May to July 2026. The scale and interest rate of this debt determine that the U.S. Treasury must complete a "low-interest replacement of high-interest" maneuver, aiming to push refinancing rates down to around 3.4% to save about $300 billion in interest expenses. The question is: how to get the whole world to voluntarily buy 3.4% U.S. debt? The answer is—create risk, making the dollar once again the "ultimate safe-haven asset." The failure of the traditional model: In the past, the U.S. relied on interest rate hikes/cuts to harvest globally (refer to the 1997 Asian financial crisis). However, the total U.S. debt has reached $39 trillion, and the U.S. itself cannot bear long-term high-interest rates, making the interest rate harvesting model ineffective. 4. New Model: Energy Stranglehold and "Joint Rent Collection" The core of the new model is energy. By escalating geopolitical conflicts to drive up oil prices (targeting $100+), it precisely strikes at the manufacturing sectors of Asia and Europe (Asian manufacturing accounts for 40% of global production and is highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy). When the economies of Asia and Europe decline due to high oil prices and local currencies depreciate, local capital is forced to sell local assets to convert to dollars, flowing back to buy U.S. debt. A more ruthless game: U.S. shale oil costs $60 vs. Middle Eastern costs of $3, making it impossible to win a price war. However, if oil prices are pushed to $100 through war, U.S. shale oil and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries become "joint rent collectors." Iran charges $2 million per tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially earning an extra $100 billion a year, accounting for a quarter of national income. On the surface, it seems like a life-and-death struggle, but in reality, they are counting money together—the cost is borne by the manufacturing power that is being harvested. This is why a two-week ceasefire agreement may just be a strategic "sweep high point"—before the repayment pressure of U.S. debt is truly lifted (May to July 2026), the macro environment remains extremely unfriendly to risk assets. Today's Operational Thoughts (Part 2) 1) Be wary of a potential second wave of rebound caused by a "ceasefire extension." If the Islamabad negotiations this Friday release signals of an extension (for example, extending the two-week ceasefire to 45 days), it may push BTC short-term towards $75,000-$78,000. If this trend occurs, remember—this is precisely the "sweep high point" script, an opportunity to strengthen shorts rather than stop losses. 2) Continue to hold gold positions, and even consider increasing holdings. Gold is the only physical asset not affected by the "energy stranglehold" and "U.S. debt continuation risk." Before the true release of U.S. debt repayment pressure (May to July), there are structural reasons for the continued rise of gold's safe-haven premium. Silver can serve as a leveraged supplement to gold. 3) In the second half of the year, pay attention to the macro nodes of September-October 2026. This is a critical verification period for the "1999 fractal" script and a watershed for whether the business cycle can complete its reset. If risk assets undergo a systemic reset around October, that will be the real bottoming opportunity for building positions. Before the pressure of U.S. debt continuation is completed, all rebounds are worth questioning. Maintaining a bearish stance is not emotional but based on the hard deductions of the macro general.

"Realism Perspective (Part 1)" BTC's -70% Regression and Three Untouched Cost Lines April 14, 2026 Today is April 14, and the "weak window" of the first half of April is about to close. Looking back over the past two weeks: BTC has been fluctuating around $71,500, the US-Iran ceasefire has entered its second half, and the S&P/Gold ratio is still hovering around 1.4. More and more friends are starting to ask the same question: You said BTC would drop to $60,000 or even $54,000; isn't that too pessimistic? Today, I want to answer directly: predicting a drop to $40,000 is not doomsday talk, but a realistic deduction based on mathematical regression. 1. The Mathematics of the Halving Cycle: This Round's Retracement is Likely -70% First, let's look at the hard data. The retracement from the top to the bottom of each Bitcoin halving cycle shows a clear decreasing pattern: First round: -94%; Second round: -87%; Third round: -84%; Fourth round: -77%; Based on the decreasing slope, this round is predicted to be about -70% (±5%). If this pattern continues, based on the cycle high of $126,000, the target retracement range is: Retracement 65%: about $44,000; Retracement 70% (baseline): about $37,800; Retracement 75%: about $31,500. In other words, a drop of BTC to the $31,000-$42,000 range is not a doomsday scenario, but a "realistic" expectation that aligns with historical mathematical patterns. Many people will counter: this round does not have retail frenzy, so it shouldn't drop this deep. But the counter-evidence is from 2019—when BTC peaked without obvious frenzy, even without the subsequent pandemic impact, its decline low reached a 70% retracement. "Lack of frenzy" has never been a reason for an asset to avoid deep corrections. 2. Three Untouched Cost Lines: The Bottom is Far from Here In my blog post on April 9, I mentioned the Realized Price and Balanced Price. Today, I will add the MVRV Z-score to make the criteria more complete: Indicator 1—Realized Price: about $54,000. The average cost of all BTC when last moved on-chain. Indicator 2—Balanced Price: about $39,000. The fair equilibrium valuation of circulating BTC on-chain. Indicator 3—MVRV Z-score: currently has not entered the negative zone. Historically, every true cycle bottom corresponds to the negative zone of the MVRV Z-score. Additionally, the Supply in Profit / Supply in Loss curve has not yet crossed—this is another "proof that the chip replacement is not yet complete." Every true cycle bottom must pierce through the Realized Price and Balanced Price to complete the time dimension of chip replacement. Before these quantitative indicators reset, all rebounds are merely technical pullbacks in a downward trend. Currently, BTC at $71,500 is still 25% away from the Realized Price and 45% from the Balanced Price. The bottom is far from here. 3. ETFs are Not a Moat: The Historical Lesson of QQQ "Bitcoin has ETF support, so it won't crash"—this is the bullish argument I've heard the most recently. I respond with a historical case: In 1999, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) was launched at an issue price of $48, then rose to $120. And then? During the recession, it fell all the way to $19, far below its initial issue price. The pattern is very clear: thematic ETFs are usually issued at the end of a multi-year bull market, when social attention is at its highest. The existence of ETFs does not change the physical law of assets returning to their underlying value. To add a glaring data point: BTC has already fallen below the $109,000 level when the current US administration took office, with a current depreciation of about 35%. If the S&P 500 also follows a similar logic to regress to its cycle starting point (around 6,100 points), it means risk assets still have 10%-20% of downside space. Today's Operational Thoughts (Part 1) Short positions (ETH/XRP) continue to be held. The target range of $31,000-$42,000 is still 41%-56% down from the current $71,500. Until the Realized Price of $54,000 and the Balanced Price of $39,000 are touched, the underlying logic for shorts remains intact. The hard stop-loss line is maintained at $79,000 (21-week EMA), allowing for a 10% buffer for short-term noise. The three key cost lines are profit-taking signals: Realized Price $54,000, Balanced Price $39,000, MVRV Z-score entering the negative zone. Any one of these being triggered is an important reduction point. Maintaining pessimism is not doomsday talk, but a respect for mathematics and history. (Part 2: Geopolitical Deep Logic—Why the US is "Igniting" in the Middle East "At This Moment") #BTC #Bitcoin #MVRV #RealizedPrice #CycleRetracement #RiskManagement

"The $72,000 Trial: Is it a Reversal or the Final Trap?" April 9, 2026 Yesterday's ceasefire news pushed BTC to touch $72,600, currently retreating to around $71,500. Many people are getting excited, thinking "the bottom has been confirmed." Today, I want to tell everyone with the latest data: hold on. $72,000 is just halfway up the mountain, and there’s still a knife hanging above— the bear market resistance zone. 1. Bear Market Resistance Zone: $78,500-$79,000 As of April 8, BTC's 20-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) is around $78,500, and the 21-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is around $78,900. The range formed by these two moving averages (approximately $78,500-$79,000) is known as the "bear market resistance zone." Why is it so important? Looking back at every mid-term year (2014, 2018, 2022), when BTC was in a downtrend, this resistance zone was the "ceiling" that bulls repeatedly tried to break through but failed. As long as the weekly candle cannot close above this line with volume, all rebounds are technically just "tests of the breakdown point." Currently, BTC at $71,500 is about 10% away from the resistance zone of $78,500-$79,000. Moreover, this resistance zone itself is also trending down weekly—I mentioned in my blog post on April 3 that the 21-week EMA was at $83,000, updated to $79,000 on April 6, and the latest data is $78,900. The bulls' ceiling is compressing down at a rate of about $1,000 per week. The conclusion is clear: before $79,000 is effectively reclaimed, the rebound at $72,000 is just a breath in a bear market, not a trend reversal. 2. 75% Probability: The Real Bottom Has Not Arrived Many friends ask me: will the low point in February be the absolute bottom of this round? My answer is—most likely not. First, let’s look at what conditions the bulls need to establish: the bull scenario's premise is to replicate the 2019 model, assuming February is the bottom, and that there will be no economic contraction, with macro headwinds being forcefully reversed by policy as in 2019. This scenario is not impossible, but it requires a series of very stringent conditions to be met simultaneously. Next, let’s look at the baseline probability given by the data: based on historical statistics from mid-term years, the probability of BTC ultimately breaking below the February low is about 70%-75%. This probability is not a random number but is based on regression analysis of three complete mid-term cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022. More critically, there are two "ultimate cost lines" that have yet to be touched: BTC Realized Price, currently around $54,000—representing the average cost of all BTC when last moved on-chain. BTC Balanced Price, currently around $39,000—representing the "fair equilibrium valuation" of circulating BTC on-chain. Historically, all true cycle bottoms must break below the realized price and even briefly touch near the balanced price. The $15,500 bottom in 2022 broke below the then-realized price of about $20,000. Currently, BTC at $71,500 is 25% away from $54,000 and 45% away from $39,000. Until these two cost lines are tested, it is too early to talk about "bottom confirmation." 3. The Uniqueness of April: Higher Low ≠ Safety I need to objectively point out a favorable signal for the bulls: at the beginning of April, BTC maintained a "higher low," which is different from the direct crash rhythm in April 2014. If this Higher Low can be sustained, it indeed increases the probability of the market maintaining a sideways trend rather than a sharp drop in the short term. But note that the seasonal pattern's win rate is about 70%—not 100%. The remaining 30% is the "deviation." Even if April holds the Higher Low, if the complete script of 2014 is replicated, the low point in April will only be temporary, and the real structural bottom will not appear until October. In other words, even if there is no crash in the short term, the mid-term downtrend remains intact. 4. Honest Feedback on Liquidity: Stablecoin Market Share Doubles This is a very important data dimension I want to add today. The market share of USDT + USDC has surged from 5% to 11%. What does this number mean? This 6% market share increase did not appear out of thin air—it directly bled from the market cap of altcoins. This is why after the ceasefire news yesterday, BTC rebounded by 3.5%, while altcoins only rose by about 1% on average. The doubling of stablecoin market share is the most direct evidence of funds systematically retreating from high-risk assets. Combining the previous analytical framework, the "honest feedback" chain of liquidity is now complete: low social risk indicators (retail absence) → structural breakdown of S&P/gold ratio (traditional market risk appetite retreat) → doubling of stablecoin market share (defensive transfer of funds within the crypto market) → continuous blood loss of altcoins against BTC (the terminal performance of risk rolling down). Each link verifies the same conclusion: we are in the liquidity contraction phase of the late business cycle. 5. The "Trap" Perspective of Ceasefire Benefits Previously, I analyzed the impact of the US-Iran two-week ceasefire on the market. Today, I want to add a deeper perspective: If the S&P 500 refreshes its historical high in the next few days due to the benefits of the ceasefire, that would actually be an extremely bearish signal. Why? Because in the late business cycle, the market often conducts a "final sweep high" before collapsing, creating the illusion that "everything is fine." The S&P 500 in 2008 was still rebounding two months before Lehman collapsed, and the S&P in 2018 also refreshed its historical high at the end of September before the Q4 crash. So, if you see the S&P hitting a new high due to the ceasefire news, don’t think "the risk is eliminated"—on the contrary, that could be a classic signal of "the last distribution of the late business cycle." #BTC #Bitcoin #Gold

April 6, 2026 Currently, the market is experiencing an extremely dangerous psychological state—Complacency. 1. What is market complacency? Why is it more deadly than panic? Complacency is a widespread psychological state among investors: because prices do not react immediately to negative news (sticky inflation, worsening employment, geopolitical conflicts), investors mistakenly believe that financial stability will last indefinitely. The "buying the dip" strategy that works in a bull market can become a devastating operation in the late stages of the business cycle. It may create an illusion of profit in the short term (from days to weeks), but the overall market trend will eventually revert downward—and the speed of this reversion often exceeds everyone's expectations. Let me illustrate this with data: the market structure of BTC has fundamentally reversed since October 2025. Before October, the market characteristic was "upward breakout after a decline"; after October, it evolved into "downward plunge followed by upward retracement"—the essence of the retracement is not a reversal, but rather giving you a higher price to sell. Currently, this low-volatility consolidation has lasted for about 8 weeks. Historically, this "complacency period" usually corresponds to the buildup phase before the next nonlinear sell-off. 2. Three death signals of the late business cycle—all lights on I have repeatedly mentioned the concept of the "late business cycle"; today I will elaborate on it. The current macro environment has met all the classic characteristics that precede the end of every business cycle in history: First, the second surge in oil prices. This is the most important macro death signal. In the early stages of the business cycle, rising oil prices reflect demand expansion, which is positive; but in the late stages, oil price spikes driven by geopolitical or supply-side factors are deadly—they force central banks to maintain high interest rates through sticky inflation, thereby ending the business cycle. This is not theoretical speculation; in 1970, 1990, and 2008, each time followed this script. The current second rise in crude oil is replicating the same path. Second, the invisible deterioration of the labor market. On the surface, employment reports still look decent, but underlying data shows that excess employment has completely disappeared. More dangerously, the rise in unemployment is never linear—it can suddenly explode at a certain critical point. When this turning point arrives, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts will be severely compressed by sticky inflation, creating a policy deadlock where it can neither save the economy nor curb inflation. Third, the continuous decline of the 21-week EMA. I mentioned this indicator in a blog post a few days ago, when it was at $83,000. The latest data shows it has dropped to about $79,000 and is still accelerating downward. This means that even if BTC rebounds, the dynamic resistance it faces is decreasing every week—the ceiling for bulls is being compressed week by week. 3. Risk rolling downward—why "rotation" is a fallacy This is the core framework for understanding the differences in the performance of all assets currently. In the late business cycle, the direction of capital flow is completely opposite to that in a bull market: The transmission path is very clear: risk appetite first withdraws from the most speculative assets at the top (altcoins), manifested as a continuous loss of exchange rate for altcoins against BTC; then it affects Bitcoin itself; next, it transmits to the stock market (S&P 500); and finally impacts safe-haven assets (gold). The transmission chain is Altcoins → Bitcoin → Stock Market → Gold/Cash. The key implication of this transmission chain is that—under the current environment, there is no "rotation" from low-risk assets to high-risk assets. Many people are still waiting for the day when "funds flow from BTC to altcoins", but in the context of the end of the business cycle, the so-called rebound is merely a short-term pause in the process of liquidity retreat, and risk premiums are being systematically stripped away. Combining my analysis from the beginning of Q2 and the blog post on April 3, this logical chain has been fully closed: the continued low level of social risk indicators verifies the absence of retail investors, the structural breakdown of the S&P/gold exchange rate verifies the retreat of risk appetite, and today's analysis further confirms—that inflation driven by oil prices is sealing off the last door for "loose monetary policy" at the macro level. 4. The exchange rate clearing risk of high-beta assets Based on the logic of risk rolling downward, I need to specifically remind you to pay attention to the exchange rate clearing risk faced by high-beta assets during April's "weak window". Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are at the top of the risk curve and are the first to be sold off during liquidity retreats. Their exchange rate against BTC has been bleeding for months, and in the next two weeks, if BTC itself accelerates downward to $60,000 or even lower, the collapse of the exchange rate of altcoins against BTC may experience nonlinear acceleration—this is the "double kill" effect: suffering from a decline in dollar terms while also facing additional depreciation against BTC. For friends currently holding short positions, the profit-taking framework I proposed on April 3 is still valid: start taking 30% profit at $60,000, reduce another 30% at $54,000, and fully close positions on daily divergence. The time line of April 15 should be strictly reviewed. But today I want to add a key risk warning—the end of the complacency period is often sudden and violent. Don't think that "a big drop won't come" just because of the narrow fluctuations in the past few days; history tells us that the market spends most of its time slowly rising (inducing complacency), while a drop only takes a very short time. Today's operational thoughts 1) Core judgment remains unchanged: the first half of April is still a "floor collapse" high-risk period; low volatility is a buildup before clearing, not a bottom signal. 2) Beware of the temptation to "buy the dip". In the late business cycle, the priority of protecting capital is far higher than seeking rebound profits. Every rebound should be seen as an opportunity to reduce risk exposure, not an entry point for increasing positions. 3) Gold, as the asset at the bottom of the risk curve, usually experiences the last and least severe pullback. Under the inflation logic driven by oil prices, gold remains an indispensable anchor of real purchasing power in the portfolio. 4) The 21-week EMA has dropped from $83,000 to about $79,000. This continuously declining dynamic resistance line means that the ceiling for bulls is being compressed every week—even if BTC rebounds, the upper space is narrowing week by week. Face the physical laws that the business cycle is entering its end. "This time is different" is the five most expensive words before the end of every cycle. #BTC #Late Business Cycle #Altcoins #S&P 500

April 3, 2026 "April Liquidation Countdown: Seeking Profit-Taking Signals Amid Panic" Two days have passed since I proposed the "April early-month bottoming window" in my Q2 outlook, and the market is progressing according to script. Today, I want to further focus on three core questions based on previous analyses: How much space is left for the downward inertia in April? Will May see an early structural reversal? And—how should the profit-taking discipline for short positions be set? 1. April Weakness Window: Quantitative Derivation of Key Price Anchors In my analysis on April 1, I pointed out that a 9% pullback in the S&P 500 is likely to touch the standard correction range of 10%-15%. Two days later, this logic is being validated. However, for the crypto market, the more precise anchors are the following key data points: The BTC 21-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is currently around $83,000. This is a dynamic support zone that has not been effectively breached during the bull market since 2024. In the previous Q1 rebound, BTC faced strong rejection after touching this moving average, confirming that this line has flipped from "support" to "resistance." This is the most direct technical evidence for judging the current market structure's shift from bullish to bearish. The BTC Realized Price is currently around $54,000. This indicator represents the average cost of all BTC at the last time they moved on-chain, and historically, every bear market's ultimate bottom has tested or even briefly dipped below this level. The bottom of the 2022 bear market ($15,500) was approximately 22% below the realized price at that time (around $20,000). The average cost for short-term holders is around the $65,000-$70,000 range. For every 1% drop in the current price, the potential forced liquidation volume increases exponentially. The key median between the two anchors is $60,000. Once BTC falls below this level, it means a large number of short-term holders will enter a loss state, triggering liquidation-level selling pressure. This is also the first profit-taking threshold I have set—details will follow. 2. Historical Coordinates from 1970: The Mutated Script of May's Bottom I have previously emphasized that market lows in mid-term years (even years like 2018, 2022) are likely to occur in the second half of the year (around October). However, while reviewing longer-term historical data, I discovered a mutated case worth noting: 1970. The characteristics of the S&P 500 in 1970: the highest point of the year occurred in January (remarkably consistent with BTC's January high in 2025), followed by a continuous downward channel. But the key difference is that the low for that year did not occur in the fall as most expected, but rather completed its bottoming on May 26. The bottoming pattern was a classic "Sweep of Prior Low"—the price rapidly broke through the previous low in a very short time, triggering panic selling and leveraged liquidations, followed by a swift V-shaped reversal. The implication for the current market is very direct: If 2026 replicates the rhythm of 1970, then the downward phase from April to May will be the most intense but also the shortest. This "sweeping bottom" characteristic means that the bottom stays for a very short time (usually 1-2 weeks), but the drop could reach 15%-25% in a short period. For investors holding short positions, this is both a profit explosion period and the stage with the lowest operational margin for error. 3. Refusing to Become a "Dead Bear"—Quantitative Framework for Profit-Taking Discipline In the past few weeks, the bearish judgment has been fully validated by the market. But history tells us that the most fatal mistake short sellers make is not shorting too late at the top, but rather closing positions too late at the bottom—because they are too obsessed with their "genius predictions," thus missing the opportunity to switch back to bullish at the bottom. Based on the above analysis, I have set the following profit-taking observation framework for myself, for everyone's reference: First trigger condition: BTC falls below $60,000. Once triggered, start taking profit on 30% of short positions in batches to lock in profit. Second trigger condition: BTC approaches $54,000 (Realized Price). In this area, reduce short positions by another 30%, while also observing whether on-chain data shows "surrender signals"—such as a surge in net inflows to exchanges or rare large-scale sell-offs by long-term holders. Third trigger condition: A daily-level bottom divergence appears technically (RSI/MACD), accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume. At this point, consider fully closing short positions and starting to build a tentative long position. Time red line: Regardless of whether the price reaches the above anchors, after April 15, it is necessary to start examining the rationality of short positions. If the "May reversal" script from 1970 is realized, then late April may be the last profit-taking window. Do not wait for the "perfect bottom" to act; batch operations are the only antidote to the risk of V-shaped reversals. 4. Cross-Market Validation: Latest Signals from the S&P/Gold Ratio Continuing the analysis from the Q2 outlook, the S&P 500 to gold ratio has weakened again this week after completing a technical pullback from the February breakout point. Historical mirrors from 1973 and 2008 show that the second wave of downward movement after a failed pullback is usually more severe. Gold's role in the current environment is becoming increasingly clear: against the backdrop of expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy (the market pricing a 60% probability of a rate cut in June) and geopolitical risks, gold's attributes as a safe haven asset are being repriced. If the S&P 500 further corrects to the -15% range, gold's relative performance may accelerate upward. Today's operational thoughts: 1) April 1-15 remains a high-risk period for "floor collapse," maintaining the core logic of holding short positions. 2) Closely monitor the BTC $60,000 level—this is the first threshold to initiate batch profit-taking. Do not wait for the "perfect bottom" to act; batch operations are the only antidote to the risk of V-shaped reversals. 3) Continue to hold gold positions as a stable anchor in the portfolio. The allocation value of gold continues to rise until the S&P/gold ratio completes its second wave of downward movement. 4) Stay vigilant for the May reversal. If on-chain data begins to show surrender signals in late April, be sure to overcome the greedy mindset of "just a little more drop" and lock in short profits in a timely manner. Stay calm during liquidation, be flexible amid panic.

2026.04.01 "Q2 Opening Assessment: When 'Apathy' Meets 'Correction' — The Dual Narrative of Crypto and US Stocks" Today is April 1st, the first day of the second quarter. Looking back at the entire first quarter, both the crypto market and US stocks have provided directional signals to varying degrees. Taking advantage of the quarter change, I will systematically integrate the two core main lines I have been tracking recently and share my macro assessment of Q2 with everyone. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📉 Main Line One: Crypto Market — The 'Apathy Top' Revealed by Social Risk Indicators The social risk metric I have been tracking combines multi-dimensional data such as changes in attention on platform X, views and subscription growth of YouTube crypto channels, Coinbase App download rankings, and Google Trends search popularity, with the core goal of quantifying retail investor sentiment activity and identifying the true position of the market cycle. 🔻 The Cliff-like Shrinkage of Retail Participation Data shows that since May 2021, the social attention in the crypto market has been in a long-term downward channel. The most intuitive comparison: the average daily total views in the YouTube crypto space have dropped from a peak of 3-4 million in 2021 to about 500,000 now, a decline of over 85%. This means that the market top formed in 2025 is essentially a top based on 'Apathy' rather than 'Euphoria'. Unlike the nationwide frenzy in 2017 and 2021, this cycle's top has quietly completed almost without retail investors noticing. 🔻 Why Has the Altcoin Season Been Absent? Many friends have been asking this question, and the logic chain is actually very clear: the rotation of capital from BTC to altcoins historically requires a large-scale retail entry as an emotional driving force. When the social risk indicators remain low and show no signs of bottoming, the so-called 'asset rotation' cannot occur due to a lack of liquidity increment. This is the underlying reason for the continuous bloodletting of altcoins against BTC in Q1 — it's not that altcoins are failing, but that the 'fuel' driving the rotation is simply insufficient. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📉 Main Line Two: US Stocks — The Game Path After a 9% Pullback The S&P 500 has currently pulled back about 9% from its highs, approaching the 10% standard correction threshold. Considering historical coordinates and the current macro environment, I believe there are several key dimensions worth focusing on in the future. 🔻 April Window: Looking for a Phase Correction Low Historical data shows that in mid-term years (like 2022, 2018), the stock market often looks for phase support in the first half of April. The current 9% pullback has not yet reached the 10%-15% standard correction range, which means there is still downward inertia in the next two weeks. The first half of April is likely to become the bottoming window for this round of correction. 🔻 Structural Failure of the S&P/Gold Ratio This is one of the signals I have been paying the most attention to recently: the S&P 500 to gold ratio experienced a structural break in February, and the rebound in US stocks over the past two weeks is essentially a technical back-test of the break point. Historically, after similar breaks in 1973 and 2008, US stocks failed to create substantial new highs and subsequently entered a long-term downward cycle. Under the real purchasing power coordinates, the S&P 500 has lost the momentum to continuously create new highs. 🔻 Beware of Two Rebound Scenarios If the April low is established, subsequent rebounds may take two forms: First, a low-level pullback type — the rebound may be rejected at the 21-week EMA (bull market support zone), forming a lower high before starting a sustained decline in the second quarter; second, a sweep of highs type — referencing the trends before 2018 and 2008, the market may experience a strong impulse rebound after bottoming, even briefly 'sweeping' previous historical highs, before sharply turning down again. It is important to note that even if new highs occur, due to the defensive rotation of internal component stocks, this is usually the final distribution of a late-stage business cycle. Regardless of the scenario, the logic points to the same conclusion: before the threat of negative unemployment data is eliminated, any rebound should be viewed as a window to reduce risk exposure, rather than a signal of a return to a bull market. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔗 Dual Line Intersection: Risk Transmission in the Late Business Cycle Looking at the two main lines together, the logical loop is very complete: In the late business cycle, the contraction of liquidity has its inherent transmission order — speculative bubbles at the end of the risk curve burst first (altcoins), followed by liquidity retreating sequentially to the back end: altcoins → Bitcoin → stock market → gold/cash. BTC has already broken key support in Q1, indicating the downward path for the stock market. The continued decline in social attention in the crypto market and the break of the S&P/gold ratio together validate the same macro reality: funds are systematically retreating from high-volatility speculative assets to traditional safe havens. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 Q2 Operational Thoughts 1) Short-term focus on the bottoming signals in the first half of April, as both US stocks and BTC may look for phase lows during this window. 2) Even if a rebound occurs, based on the structural failure of the S&P/gold ratio and the continued lack of social activity, it is not advisable to view the rebound as a trend reversal. 3) Core observation signals: whether the Coinbase App download ranking shows a low-level volume reversal, whether Google search popularity rebounds from the bottom, and whether the S&P 500 can strengthen again under real purchasing power coordinates. Before these signals are confirmed, maintaining gold positions and using short positions to hedge Beta risk is the priority logic for protecting capital. Data does not lie; emotions do. At the start of Q2, stay calm and let the data speak.