Lei06

Last time I wrote about BSB, I mentioned one thing: the most dangerous aspect of this project is not whether it will drop, but that a large portion of its market cap cannot be realized. Today BSB has risen again. +12.22%, current price $0.8391, market cap shows $180.6 million. There are 10,023 buy orders and 9,274 sell orders, with buy orders outnumbering sell orders—on the surface, everything looks "healthy." Then let's look at liquidity. BSC main pool: $83,691. Base pool: $210,260. Total across the chain: about $309,000. $180.6 million market cap, $309,000 real liquidity. The ratio is 583 times. Last time I wrote about BSB, this ratio was 1,873 times—because the Base pool didn't exist then. Now that the Base pool has been added, it has diluted some, and 583 times sounds "much better." But 583 times means: if all holders decide to sell at the same time, the market only has one 583rd of the liquidity to absorb it. In other words, if you have $1,000 of BSB, there is only $1.7 in the market waiting to buy your goods. Today's trading volume is $3.34M, liquidity is $309K, trading volume/liquidity = 10.8 times. Each piece of liquidity has been flipped back and forth 10 times today—does this indicate an active market, or a market where people are constantly entering and exiting the same shallow pool? There are more buy orders (10,023) than sell orders (9,274)—is this a real accumulation of buy orders, or are small buy orders continuously being introduced during the price increase, while selling is done through a few large sell orders? This question cannot be seen from the number of buy and sell orders; it requires looking at the size of each order, and that data is hard to cleanly separate from the noise on-chain. This is the third rally cycle I have tracked for BSB. Each rally has the same structure: price rises, more buy orders, increased trading volume, but the liquidity pool remains at an extremely small scale relative to the market cap. This structure means: the price can be easily pushed up because the cost of pushing the price is low; but the price can also be easily pushed down because the ability to absorb selling pressure is equally thin. When it rises, the market cap number looks great, $180.6 million. When it drops, what you can sell is just the portion you can grab from that $309,000. One thing worth noting: today it rose +12%, but in 6 hours it dropped -0.27%, indicating a slight pullback after a spike during the day. The price did not move in one direction; someone is reducing at the high point. Is this an early selling signal, or normal price fluctuation? With BSB's liquidity structure, the difference between the two often only becomes clear after the price has already run. BSB has once again made the numbers look good today. But the 583 times ratio has not changed.

Bitbank has launched a cryptocurrency credit card in Japan that supports Bitcoin payments! Bitbank is introducing a cryptocurrency-linked credit card with a Bitcoin payment option in Japan, adding a new spending and payment perspective for local cryptocurrency use. $BTC

【$1.95 billion liquidated in the crypto market in the last 24 hours, with $1.29 billion in long positions liquidated】 According to CoinGlass monitoring, a total of 67,425 people were liquidated globally in the last 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $195 million. Among them, $129 million in long positions were liquidated, and $65.743 million in short positions. In the last 12 hours, the total liquidation amount was $149 million, with $109 million in long positions liquidated and $39.9961 million in short positions. In the last 4 hours, the total liquidation amount was $62.4241 million, with $52.7277 million in long positions liquidated and $9.6964 million in short positions. In the last hour, the total liquidation amount was $2.997 million, with $915.3 thousand in long positions liquidated and $2.0817 million in short positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Hyperliquid platform for the XYZ:CL-USD trading pair, valued at $6.5126 million. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #Powell 4·29 interest rate meeting: the final battle of the term #Countdown to crypto legislation: 525 last window #White House previews major announcement on strategic BTC reserves

The BIT-associated whale has increased its long position in ETH to 63,000 ETH. On April 29, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, the BIT-associated whale (which has previously made over $59 million in profit) is increasing its ETH long positions. He now holds 63,000 ETH (worth $143.5 million) across 3 wallets.

Today’s BTC and ETH candlestick charts show that no technical analysis is needed; you can read the sentiment directly. BTC opened today at $77,520 and almost immediately reached the day's highest point of $77,549. It wasn't a spike before the close, nor a breakout during lunch; it opened at the highest point and then steadily declined, dropping to $75,678, and is now fluctuating around $75,937. This candlestick is saying: today, no one is waiting; everyone who wanted to sell did so as soon as the market opened. Not because of any bad news. There were no explosions, no liquidations, no macro black swans. It’s because it rose a bit the day before, and today opened slightly higher, prompting holders to react immediately: enough, time to run. They are not greedy, not waiting, not gambling. They know that if they don’t run now, the next $77,549 might not come for a while, and even if it does, it might not break through $80K. ETH followed the same script today. High point at $2,311, now at $2,272, down -1.12%. It’s falling slower than BTC, but the direction is the same: it opened at the peak, then narrowed, and is now oscillating at a low level. The Fear and Greed Index today is at 33, indicating Fear. The number 33 is quite subtle. It’s not extreme fear (that’s below 10, reminiscent of last year’s bear market), nor is it neutral, and certainly not greedy. 33 represents a specific sentiment: I know it might rise, but I don’t believe it. It’s that state of having been faked out too many times, where real signals and false signals are processed with the same reaction—conservative, light positions, taking profits when they can. BTC has been oscillating in the $75K-$80K range for quite some time. Each time it approaches $80K, a group of people starts to reduce their positions because they feel this might be a temporary top; each time it drops near $75K, another group believes this is support and slowly adds back in. Both groups are trading, and neither is wrong, but the result is that the price keeps bouncing around in this range, and no one can capture a complete trend. This sideways movement is the most psychologically exhausting state in the market, even more uncomfortable than a one-sided decline. In a decline, you can cut losses with a stop-loss, at least there’s a clear outcome. Sideways movement brings countless small hopes and small disappointments alternating; every slight rise makes you start to expect, and every slight drop makes you start to doubt, cycling through, emotions wear down, and ultimately many people’s choice is: forget it, let’s step back and wait. Then what they wait for is the next time the market opens at the highest point. Today’s BTC candlestick is not a falling candlestick; it’s an anxious candlestick. It can’t rise, nor does it crash; it just sways there, disrupting everyone’s rhythm. $80K is a door, with many waiting to sell above; every time it gets close, it gets pushed back. Only when there is enough buying power to truly push this door open will this anxious candlestick turn into something else. Today is clearly not that day. Are you currently holding out for $80K, or have you already exited and are watching from the sidelines? 👇 $BTC $ETH $DOGE #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 #加密立法倒计时：525最后窗口

Today, ZBT / ZEROBASE showed me a number that I confirmed three times to make sure I wasn't mistaken. The 24-hour trading volume displayed on CoinGecko for ZBT is $266 million. CoinGecko ranks it #498 by market cap, showing a market cap of about $47.5 million, with a price of $0.194, up +12.5% today. It sounds like a project with trading volume and popularity. Then I looked at the on-chain data. For the main trading pair ZBT/USDT on BSC, the size of the on-chain liquidity pool is $20,593. The liquidity on Ethereum is $14,981. Combined across the chain, it's about $36,000. $36,000 in liquidity matches $266 million in trading volume. This ratio is 7,222 times. To understand it another way: if this trading volume is real, the same dollar in this pool would need to be traded back and forth more than 7,000 times within 24 hours. It would need to completely enter and exit every approximately 12 seconds. This is physically impossible to be generated by real trades. $266M in trading volume with $36K in liquidity can only mean one thing: wash trading. Either it's self-trading at the contract level, or bots are high-frequency trading back and forth in a low liquidity pool, inflating the trading volume number to make it appear "active" on CoinGecko. Why wash trade? Because trading volume is the first screening indicator for many traders—"only with volume is there popularity, and with popularity, it's worth researching." A token with a high trading volume will be clicked on by more people, and once clicked, there's a chance they will buy in. The cost of wash trading is extremely low (in a low liquidity pool controlled by oneself, the fees are all circular), but it can attract real retail attention. Looking at a few more details. The contract address for ZBT ends with "777777"—this is a deliberately chosen address, and mining such a nice contract address requires a lot of computing power, which the project team intentionally did; this is a carefully packaged signal. On BSC, there were 2,438 buy orders and 2,287 sell orders in 24 hours; the numbers look very natural and organic, not like obvious bot characteristics—but the ratio of trading volume to liquidity has already revealed the essence. What is the ZEROBASE project doing, and what does the white paper say? Today, I couldn't find enough clear first-hand information to say whether its "fundamentals are good or bad." But the structure of this on-chain number is enough to say one thing: this trading volume is not the result of real demand; it is manufactured. The purpose of manufacturing it is to make you feel that this is an active market, and then bring in real money. $36K in liquidity means another thing: if you really want to buy in, even with a few tens of thousands of dollars, you will push the price up a lot yourself; if you want to sell, you will also push the price down yourself. This market depth cannot support normal position entries and exits. ZBT is up +12.5% today; I don't know if it will go up tomorrow, but this liquidity structure makes "safe exit" a very interesting question. $ZBT

When the last article was finished, ZKJ was at $0.02437. Now it is at $0.03146. It has risen by 29%. The mechanism discussed in the last article—shorts being forced to close, time window compressing buying pressure, forced short squeezes—is still in operation today, it hasn't stopped. Now there are less than 21 hours left until Binance delists the ZKJ U-based perpetual contract. At 17:00 on April 29, the contract will close, and that door will be permanently shut. Before the door closes, there are still shorts that haven't been fully closed. Each unclosed short position is a potential buy order at the current price of ZKJ—not because they want to buy, but because they have to buy. Starting from today's opening at $0.0115, ZKJ has now risen by +173.5%, with today's peak reaching $0.03338. In less than a day, the price has nearly tripled. This is not a fundamental reassessment; it is an extreme output of the mechanism—the fundamentals of the same asset today and yesterday have not changed at all; the only change is a delisting notice and the time pressure it creates. But now is the most difficult phase to judge. The price is already above $0.03, and after a 173% increase, most of the early shorts that needed to be closed have already been closed. The remaining question is: how many shorts are still open? No one knows the exact number. If the remaining short volume is still large, the closer it gets to the deadline, the more concentrated the buying pressure will be, and the price may have one last surge before 17:00 tomorrow; if the shorts have basically been cleared, the current price is accommodating the FOMO buying that didn't finish yesterday, and that buying will immediately disappear after the contract closes. This is why tonight until 17:00 tomorrow is the most dangerous time window for the whole situation. Logically, there may be one last surge before the contract closes—shorts concentrating on closing before the deadline; after the contract closes, the mechanism for forcing shorts will completely disappear, and those without new reasons to support this price will be the first to sell. Where is ZKJ's fundamental value? Polyhedra Network, which is working on ZK proof protocols, is in a market segment that currently lacks attention, and without new catalysts, relying solely on narrative to support a price of $0.03+ is quite challenging. For those at $0.03146 now, they have only one question: who will take over after 17:00? If you entered today, this is a trade of "knowing what you are betting on"—the bet is not on ZKJ's value, but on how many shorts are left to close and when they will close. This bet has a clear deadline; the advantage is that you don't have to guess for too long, but the downside is that if you're wrong, there is no time to wait for a reversal. $ZKJ

Zhang Xue once refused to cooperate with Huawei Refusing Huawei in the Chinese tech circle takes a lot of guts. Some say she is foolish. Some say she has principles. But in the end, everyone is discussing her — not because she accepted, but because she refused. Sometimes, refusing is worth more than accepting.

Today, ZKJ gave us a lesson on "How Delisting Can Turn into a Price Surge." Here's the situation: Binance announced that on April 29 at 17:00, it will delist the U-based perpetual contract trading pair for ZKJ. This news should normally be negative—exchanges believe this contract has no value to maintain and are shutting it down. The usual logic is: delisting = liquidity disappearing = price drop. However, today ZKJ surged from $0.0119 to a high of $0.02648, an increase of +122%, with a 24-hour trading volume hitting $1.09 million USDT. It has now pulled back a bit, resting at $0.02437, which is still up +104.79% compared to the opening. Why did this happen? The answer lies with the short sellers. In the perpetual contract market, there have always been people shorting ZKJ—they borrow tokens to sell, betting on a price drop, and then buy back when the price falls to profit from the difference. But after Binance announced the delisting of the contract, these short sellers must close their positions before April 29 at 17:00. How do they close their positions? By buying ZKJ to cover their shorts. A large number of shorts forced to buy the same asset within the same time window results in only one outcome: the price gets pushed up. This isn't because ZKJ's fundamentals suddenly improved, nor is it due to any major news; it's the mechanism at work—the forced liquidation time window compressed what would have been dispersed buying demand into today. This phenomenon is called a short squeeze, but today's ZKJ has a unique aspect: it wasn't due to the bulls actively attacking and pushing the price to squeeze the shorts; rather, it was the exchange's announcement that did this for the bulls. Being delisted turned out to be the most effective trigger for a short squeeze. The current question is: can this price hold? Logically, the buying pressure generated by short covering is a one-time event. After April 29 at 17:00, the contract will be closed, and there will be no new shorts needing to cover, meaning the force that pushed the price up will disappear. Those who bought at today's high are holding an asset that has just completed a full squeeze, with no change in fundamentals, only a price increase due to mechanical reasons—what will they do? With a 24-hour trading volume of only $1.09 million USDT, at this level, the price is very light. Things that rise quickly can also fall quickly without real buying support. Today, ZKJ honestly demonstrated one thing: in the contract market, a delisting announcement ≠ negative news; it is a knife, and the direction depends on whose position is at the edge of the knife. Today, it was the shorts at the edge. After 17:00 tomorrow, the knife will still be there, but the target will have changed. $ZKJ

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with a year-end target price of about $125,000. On April 28, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that he is "more optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. AI will replace a large number of knowledge workers, potentially leading to hundreds of billions of dollars in credit losses for the banking system, similar to a new subprime mortgage crisis. However, the U.S. has entered a wartime state, and the new defense budget will increase by about 50% to $1.5 trillion. The U.S. government will not cut spending but will instead print a lot of money. The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rule, effective April 1, allows banks to hold less reserves and more government bonds. S&P Global estimates this will release about $1.3 trillion in new lending capacity for the banking system, mainly for defense-related companies and AI infrastructure. The money multiplier effect of bank lending is about 3, which could ultimately create about $4 trillion in credit. Fed chair nominee Waller will reduce the Fed's balance sheet but simultaneously relax bank regulations, allowing commercial banks to take over government bonds and repurchase agreements. The net liquidity impact will be neutral, but the entity creating money will shift from the central bank to commercial banks. The scale of newly created credit will exceed the scale of credit destroyed by AI, so Bitcoin will continue to rise, with a year-end target price of about $125,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 #加密立法倒计时：525最后窗口 #沃什提名落定：首位持币Fed主席